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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."